Hold Fire

The bad news for the bulls is that they can no longer count on the shorts to buoy the market as I believe the short base is quite small after today. Additionally, today's move over 1130 is starting to make the bull camp seem crowded, making sentiment a headwind.

The good news for the bulls is that nearly every portfolio manager was caught completely flat footed by this 10% rally and they still have had little chance to get in. And that corporations continue to put cash to work via cash M&A and buybacks.

I believe the short side is looking increasingly interesting in the short term as the market will be digesting a lot of supply this week. Additionally, even if the market is headed higher it is likely that the breakout point, 1130 on the S&P 500, will be tested when this market finally decides to pull back.  Have a good night.


Anonymous said...

i don't believe that markets are ruled by supply/demand anymore. 90% of the volume is fictitious momo algo's and fed injectdion.

Tsachy Mishal said...

I must disagree. I think the recent rally makes tons of sense. Everyone was declaring the end of the World a few weeks ago. There was a decent short base, managers were severely underweight and all the while corporations were buying back stock hand over and fist. Once the market started rising the chase began.