Definition Of A Crash

By definition a market crash is less likely to occur when the crowd is expecting one. A crash occurs when panic leads to too many people heading for the exit at the same time. If the crowd is expecting a crash than they sell ahead of time, buy protective puts and even short. That makes it less likely that anybody will need to sell in a panic as they are already protected.

Hedge fund managers have derisked and individuals are about as bearish as they get. There are articles everywhere about how bad September has been historically, how the economy is double dipping and there areprice targets on the S&P 500 under 1000. With all this preparedness it is a lot less likely that we will see major downside.

There are global imbalances that could cause an economic crisis. I believe it would take  a crisis in order for the market to see major downside in the near term. I am not writing off the bears concerns as they do have good points. But these concerns have been true for over a decade and there have still been plenty of rallies.

1 comment:

Anonymous said...

I agree with your analysis. But the consequence of that is the market will grind lower over a period of years. Perhaps a mini rally once in a while, followed by volatility to the downside.