Why The Market Won't Go Down

GDP came in worse than expected, as did employment and retail sales. So why won't the market go down? The answer is quite simply that hedge funds have de-risked. The evidence is that hedge funds as a group gained less than 2% in July even though the S&P 500 was up 7% while corporate and junk bonds were up as well. All they had to do was own something and they would have done much better. Their returns imply very low levels of stock exposure.

Mutual funds don't change their cash levels drastically and individuals are losing interest in the market leaving hedge funds as the most active participants in the market. When they de-risk the market goes down and when they re-risk the market goes up. Right now they are re-risking and trying to get in on dips. As soon as they are done re-risking the market will promptly fall. The million dollar question is when?

No comments: