Neutral, Not Bearish

I am market neutral but not bearish for a number of reasons:
  • Hedge funds are largely still de-risked and there are few over leveraged market participants out there.
  • Seasonality is still positive.
  • Sentiment is not yet extreme but I suspect we will get there pretty soon if the market keeps going up.
In order to break the early July lows I think there will need to be an economic accident. With equity weightings pretty low I don't think the market can fall that far on its own weight. 

4 comments:

Anonymous said...

charts look very bullish.
Nobody likes to buy after a move up, but this is the beginning of the next leg higher.
Kinda like last year. You expect a pullback but it keeps going up.
I'm looking for 1150-70 then 1222.

Tsachy Mishal said...

The charts always look better after the market is up. I would rather buy at times of distress than pay up when the charts look good.

I am just happy to make a profit. I don't care if the market goes up without me as I know I won't catch every move.

Anonymous said...

When I said charts look good...I meant higher highs and higher lows. It's obviously breaking out to the upside.

-this is just a general comment.
It wasn't geared towards you or your recent market moves?

Tsachy Mishal said...

Understood. My bad.