Looking At the Bear Case

The gloom is palpable this morning and typically we have seen bounces when this has occurred in the past few months. Additionally, the Euro is steady so we should not see much pressure from sovereign issues today.

The most convincing argument the bears have right now is that the market is not oversold in the intermediate term. Today, is the sixteenth trading day since the market made its high on August ninth. Intermediate term trends tend to tire after six weeks or 30 trading days. That would work out to a few days after September expiration.

The market went sideways for a few days before the actual August ninth top, so an argument can be made that the market will be oversold a few days before expiration. All in all, the market will be oversold in the intermediate term at expiration give or take a few days. Even if one believes this will occur that does not mean we can't rally now for a few days as we are still short term oversold. That said, I will likely wait until the market is oversold in the intermediate term before getting aggressive on the long side again.

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