Late In The Game

Timing indicators point to a top early next week or possibly at expiration, as trends have the tendency to use expiration as a turning point. However, we are late enough in this rally that caution is warranted. I don't typically try to catch the last bits of a rally and that is especially the case now.

Speaking to people in the real world, the chorus has been getting louder that business is miserable and people are cutting back. While I often like to use the phrase "The stock market is not the economy", the disconnect can only go so far as they are connected in the long run.

There is a global slowdown, people are hurting and the stock market has relieved the extreme negative sentiment and oversold condition. The time to be aggressive was when Barton Biggs turned bearish, Robert Prechter was featured in the New York Times and Nouriel Roubini hosted Squawk Box all in the same week. Not now.

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