He Shoots, He Scores

The hype surrounding today's economic release is just plain silly. It is  a revision to a backward looking GDP figure. Who cares if the number comes in at .8 or 1.5? We already know what corporations earned in the second quarter. Tell me the GDP for the second half of the year and I might trade on it. Anybody who trades based on such a meaningless number deserves to have their money taken away.

The second most hyped inconsequential event of the day is Ben Bernanke's speech. Everybody is blaming him for the market route because he is not showing faith in the economy. After Ben Bernanke used the phrase "unusual uncertainty" the market continued to rally. The market only went down after the FOMC meeting. Unfortunately for Bernanke that meeting happened to be at a time when the market was overbought on both an intermediate and short term basis and sentiment was bullish.

What if instead of saying the economy was "unusually uncertain" Bernanke said the recovery is on track. Would the market be higher now? Would the market have ignored the atrocious economic data? The financial media likes to hype these events as they want ratings and want to make investing feel exciting. See it for what it is. Keep your wits and take advantage of those who don't.

1 comment:

Chaos! said...

Amen! GDP revisions are history. They have no bearing whatsoever. People should be focusing on sentiment here. It's alligning for some serious upside fireworks!