Too Late To Buy, Too Early To Short

With the market a few days away from being overbought I think there is only limited upside to buying from current levels. At the same time I expect a decent turn of the month because equities did so well in July, although there is room for a small dip ahead of that.

I wish I could offer a strong view but there are a lot of mixed signals right now. The economy is weakening but sentiment is still on the pessimistic side, albeit it has moderated. The market is getting overbought but at the same time we are seeing a pickup in M&A and buyback activity. The only theme I feel strongly about is that cheap, defensive shares should outperform in the months ahead.

3 comments:

Anonymous said...

Are you going to be shorting C anytime soon?

Tsachy Mishal said...

I am looking at it. I was hoping it would get to 4.30 sometime during the turn of the month but that is starting to look unlikely.

Tsachy Mishal said...

Yesterday was close enough but hindsight is 20/20.