Playing Tight

The recovery rally off of the European scare lows lasted roughly ten trading days right into June option expiration. After expiration the market subsequently turned down and bottomed ten trading days later into July 4 weekend. Today is day seven of the recovery rally off of those lows. In my experience strong moves get tired after ten days at which point we see a correction of that move.

I am hesitant to short a market where the most important players, hedge funds, have de-risked. There is only one way to go from that posture. But if I were to go short I would want to make sure that the market was exhausted and would wait until after expiration. That does not mean we cannot see a turn lower earlier. The S&P 500 shot up 90 points in a straight line at yesterday's after hours highs, so a move lower would not be surprising. But I am not playing anything but a perfect hand on the short side and we are not there yet.

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