Long Weekend Thought

Consider the following items
  1. Hedge funds have largely derisked. 
  2. Rydex traders are at their largest bearish position in over a year, roughly equaling their short positions at the July 2009 lows. This is a new development as of Friday's close. 
  3. Sentiment surveys are showing a pretty negative retail crowd and that was before last week's carnage.
  4. Its not difficult to guess which way the momentum based black boxes are leaning
If the stock market goes down much more it would seemingly oblige pretty much everyone. Since when does the market do that?
 

    6 comments:

    Anonymous said...

    whats the 10dma? and put/call saying?

    Anonymous said...

    playing the odds??


    http://www.bespokeinvest.com/thinkbig/2010/7/5/dow-7-day-losing-streaks.html

    Anonymous said...

    We are long overdue for a bounce. The fact that it shows no sign of coming (once again) tells me that this market is sick and the short term indicators are less useful. This is because the economy is sick and perceptions are changing to acknowledge this.

    We haven't seem market action like this in over 16 months, be very careful leaning too heavily on the indicators that proves succesful over that period.

    JD

    Anonymous said...

    Futures down, Asia down. The big thing going for the bulls is that there has been plenty of negativity in the past couple of months and there was a good opportunity to get out last month. So the weak hands should have been shaken out, leaving everything in strong hands. Then again, maybe the weak hands HAVEN'T been shaken out yet. The urge to get-rich-quick buying dips dies hard.

    Anonymous said...

    It looks as if Barton Biggs nailed the bottom perfectly. Uncanny! I will be sure to go all-in on the short side when he turns bullish.

    Anonymous said...

    Impressive reversal overnight. Let's see if we can get some follow through this time.

    JD