An up market on Monday would be day ten of the rally, which would mean that we have reached maximum overbought. However, the day after options expiration is often weak so a rally today would be close enough. No matter how you cut it, it is getting late in the game for this rally.
As readers know I have mixed feelings about the market. I believe that the economy is weakening but think we could still possibly rally because sentiment is so dreary. I will likely move to a market neutral position or to a slightly short position and see how far next week's correction takes us. If the correction is contained to 2%-3% than I believe we will likely make a higher high after the correction. If the correction is deeper than a move lower into the Fall may have already started. My best guess is the former as I believe this market still has to suck more people in before heading lower, but I am keeping an open mind.