Intel Is Important

In the past few quarters Intel's earnings report was not important as the only question was what the reaction would be to blowout numbers. This time around there is uncertainty surrounding the numbers and I believe tomorrow's market is dependent on Intel.

Intel will surely beat earnings numbers as they set the bar purposefully low. The key will be revenue and revenue guidance. If the numbers are lower than the whispers than it is hard to believe that investors will continue to chase the market without a pause. On the other hand I don't see a strong sell off on a solid revenue beat and solid revenue guidance until after expiration. I have no special insight into Intel's results so I see the current setup as a coin toss.

6 comments:

PJ said...

I don't know, retail sales might be just as important tomorrow.

My economic indicators have us declining at the same rapidity this summer as in 2008. July 2008 was an intermediate peak, August declined, September crashed. I wouldn't be surprised if the same pattern repeats this year.

Did you see David Rosenberg's analysis of where the buying has come from?:

When we go to the weekly data from the Fed, we see that “trading assets” on commercial bank balance sheets expanded to $325 billion in the past two weeks from $297 billion. And, when we go to the Commitment of Traders report, we see that there has been a big swing in the net speculation position on the S&P 500 “E-minis” on the Mercantile Exchange (futures and options) to a net long position of 28,172 contracts from 15,155 net shorts just two weeks ago.

How long do the banks want to get?

Anonymous said...

It looks as if the coin toss came up heads.

Anonymous said...

When does C report and can the gov't resume selling after the report? I've read some comments that the blackout is for the month of July, but this doesn't seem to make sense.

Praguer

Tsachy Mishal said...

The blackout is for all of July. Nice call on Citi going up. I did not think this kind of a move up was possible. Now the only question is whether to short on earnings or wait until the end of the month.

PJ said...

Well, market's flat now, looks like retail sales and Intel were a wash.

Anonymous said...

Retail sales did not move the market down. Futures were already down before the release and actually rose slightly in the minutes following the release. Europe is dragging the market lower.