1) less Federal stimulus spending in the 2nd half of 2010.
2) the end of the inventory correction.
3) more household saving leading to slower growth in personal consumption expenditures.
4) another downturn in housing (lower prices, less residential investment).
5) slowdown in China and Europe and
6) cutbacks at the state and local level.
I view a second half slowdown as a virtual certainty but profiting from it is not quite so simple, as anybody who has been bearish for the past few weeks knows. Shorting when the crowd turns bullish represents the best risk/reward opportunity.