Best Case

The market should be corrective this week as we are overbought. If Friday was an anomaly because of expiration we could see a bounce back, but I would not expect much more. The best the bulls can hope for is that we use the corrective period to go sideways rather than down. Than they could make an attempt for higher highs at the turn of the month. The bears are on offense this week so they will want to put as many points on the board as possible.

The range of sentiment readings has changed in recent weeks. Sentiment still seems to be on the negative side but rallies have been failing the second we see a sign of positive sentiment, like the AAII survey last week. This is a big change from earlier in the year when sentiment would need to get extremely positive before we saw a turn. That means being more patient on buys and selling a little earlier on rallies.