Are You Kidding Me

On a slow weekend one of the Bloomberg headlines has been that market guru Barton Biggs has turned bearish. From Bloomberg:
Concern governments around the world are curtailing stimulus measures too soon spurred Barton Biggs to sell about half of his stock investments this week
...
“The economic numbers are very disappointing,” Biggs said. “Maybe the politicians respond. I’m worried that we could have not just a soft patch but a double dip which lasts two or three quarters and where nominal GDP is only up 2 or 3 percent, and that’ll have a big effect on profits. I’m afraid the market goes down another 10 or 15 percent if that happens.”
Before you go shorting the market on Biggs prognostications note the following. Near the highs of the market on April 30 Bloomberg quoted Barton Biggs:
“The earnings are really coming in strong in the U.S.,” Biggs, who runs New York-based hedge fund Traxis Partners LP, said in an interview with Bloomberg Television today. “I’m still very positive.”  

On May 12 Bloomberg ran the story Biggs Says U.S. Stocks May Rise 20% Led by Technology, which is pretty self explanaotory.


On May 27 Biggs was quoted in Bloomberg:
“I think they’re going to stabilize in this general area, and then we’re going to have a significant move to the upside,"
Bloomberg said Biggs was bullish as late as June 30. When the guys who were most bullish at the top and stayed bullish the whole way down, suddenly turn bearish my contrarian antennae start to tingle.

1 comment:

Onlooker said...

Oh yeah baby, rally time! LOL

I just hope he goes bullish again, real quickly, on any kind of rally. I wouldn't doubt it as he's a perma bull type, for sure.

I think he's mostly just whining to try to get the govt to continue with their foolish attempts to prop up the economy. Not that I think they'd work, but he's of a generation of "investors"/money managers who are hooked on the drug of easy money.

Truly, selling half your portfolio last week just has to be a bad timing move in the short run here.

We'll see though. I'm still flat here other than a position in miners that I added to on the pullback Thursday and that I might lighten up on soon. Not sure what's going to happen in that area in the short term but we pulled back to an uptrend line from Feb so I thought it might be a good entry point.