A diary of the thought process behind my investment decisions
U-G-L-Y, You Aint Got No Alibi
The housing numbers were ugly and there is no other way to cut it. I heard a bull defending the numbers by saying its a good thing because we need less supply. These are sales, not housing starts. A rise in sales clears supply. The expiration of the tax credit is likely the reason the numbers were at a record low as demand was pulled forward but the numbers are still not pretty.
The economy is stalling before:
Stimulus wears off
Municipalities cut spending
Europe cuts spending
China hits the brakes
I am bullish for a trade but I am not fooling myself into believing that its not that bad because I am rooting for my book.