A diary of the thought process behind my investment decisions
Aapl always runs up in advance of their earnings. I would not be surprised to see it top 275 before earnings in July.
The market needs to bust through these 200 day moving averages to get everyone bullish again. I haven't traded in weeks, still waiting to short. The last time we were up here I was sure we would see 1127 in the e-minis, we went straight down instead. Now I am even more sure we go higher first, so maybe now we go down even faster...JD
Tsachy, great call on the market. You called the bottom last week and this weeks move higher.I know you said continued strength into options exp.What do you see with earnings next month? thanks.
Right now I don't have a strong opinion. Like I said, looking at my indicators the market should rise but looking at fundamentals it should fall. Hence, the reason I want to go to cash by the end of the week. If I gain confidence one way or the other I will post.
JD, I remember that last time, that was when I went all-in short. You thought we'd hit 1127, I thought 1127 was the absolute highest it could go and so it was safe to short from 1105 (minimal risk at only 2%).The ECB buying of long-dated bonds, providing some cash to European banks, is a plus for the bulls now, but I went short this morning for a one-day trade (looking for a brief retracement of the recent advance tomorrow, back to the 1080s) and planning to go permanently short on Thursday.
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