No Risk

After expiration I will only have two positions left, long Goldman Sachs and short Citigroup. This is the least risk I have had in years. It feels nice not to be stressed out about the market. I highly recommend it every once in a while. Have a great weekend.

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6 comments:

Anonymous said...

Nas up 7 days in a row.

Aapl new high.

C closed above $4 first time in 3 weeks..looks ready to break out.

Anonymous said...

The blackout period begins July 1st and the 2nd tranche of gov't shares may be gone by then. Seems a dangerous time to be short Citi. While I was a short early on, I'm considering going long now.

What's your take here?

Praguer

Tsachy Mishal said...

It has been amazing to me that sentiment has not turned on the stock, which is what usually happens when a stock goes down. Instead everybody is pounding the table on what a terrific buy it is because the government is selling.

The higher the price is the more supply the government has to sell. I think they will break the buyers by year end.

I would look to short a pop in July rather than buy ahead of one. The problem with buying is that if you are wrong you are forced to take a loss because you know all that supply is going to hit again August.

Anonymous said...

Agreed. Planning to short if we get a good pop in July.
As a purely short term play with the intention to get out before the blackout ends, I suspect that C is likely to rise and that potential upside gains appear greater than downside losses. That said, a drop at the beginning of the coming week would fortify my courage.
Praguer

nicasurfer said...

what is revaultion gonna do against US bonds. If it makes the dollar stronger that would be good for US bonds right?

anythoughts

Tsachy Mishal said...

I think a revaluation will be negative for treasuries in the long run. By keeping a peg China needs to recycle the dollars they are buying. Those dollars largely go into treasuries.