I Don't Get It

I still have a hard time figuring out why people trade on the retail sales figures. Most retailers already reported same store sales figures for May and those numbers are 100% accurate, while the government number is an estimate. Usually markets don't move much on retail sales but I think today's gyration highlights how jittery investors have become.

1 comment:

PJ said...

Same store sales figures don't include closed or newly opened stores, so they are incomplete. Also, they only include sales by major national brands, which is a minority of total sales.

The government numbers ought to be more reflective of the whole economy, but the quality of government numbers is open to question.

I personally favor the Mastercard numbers and the Consumer Metrics Institute indexes.

But the market still trades on government numbers. Look how much more impact the NFP report has compared to ADP or TrimTabs estimates based on tax withholdings.