The Short Term Tea Leaves

Yesterday we saw heavy put buying even though the market was up strongly. In addition, Rydex traders moved to their most bearish positioning since the February low. Both data points are quite bullish and argue for further short term upside. Given the events of the past week I am putting less weight on these data points but they are enough to keep me away from the short side for now.

If you are not scared after the events of the past week than you simply don't understand. The market crashed 10% in a matter of minutes and it was impossible to get out while it was happening. There were no bids. In addition, a number of sovereign nations would have defaulted had numerous extraordinary measures not been taken. It is abundantly clear that markets of the World are being held up by governments. On their own they would be a lot lower. The music might still be playing but not everyone will have a seat if the music stops. Last week, almost nobody did. Having a strong commitment to this market is more like a game of musical chairs than investing.

1 comment:

Anonymous said...

I agree 100%.

I've tried to express this view on other blogs but they seem to think Greece "doesn't matter to the US".

The financial problems of other European Countries are not over and have not been "taken off the table" like Jim Cramer suggest.

I also agree with the government holding this market up, BUT, I've felt that way for a while and the market continued higher.

Some nice post Tsachy.