I received a lot of questions about the CBOE equity only put/call ratio. Yesterday's reading of .32, was the lowest reading going back to 2003. That is as far back as I have data for so it might have been an all time record. The ISE equity only came in at 263. The record there is 280. Earlier this week we saw the 10 day moving average of the ISE equity reach 238, which was close to a record and only seen at major peaks.
The fact that these record extreme readings are occurring right around the time where seasonality will turn negative (in three weeks) makes me believe that we are seeing a top being formed of significance. After the initial run off the bottom in 2003 we saw an eight month correction even though we were in the middle of a strong bull market. I believe we will see something similar if the economy holds up. If the economy falls into a double dip I believe this will mark the top. I continue to expect a top by early May at the latest.