Rarefied Air

The historical data for the ISE equity only index only goes back to 2006. In the history of the indicator the 10 day moving average has only reached the current heights on three previous occasions. In the chart below I marked these peaks with red arrows.

The first peak was on 1/17/2006. The S&P 500 corrected 30 points after this reading and did not exceed that level for another two months. Even after the level was regained temporarily in March the market proceeded to correct through August. The first reading led to an eight month correction that was not very large in magnitude but lasted a long time.

The second reading occurred on July 17, 2007. The S&P 500 proceeded to correct 150 points in short order. This was the internal high for the bull market even though there was a slightly higher high in October.

The third reading occurred on October 15, 2007. That marked the bull market high. Enough said.

We are currently looking at the fourth such reading. I suspect that in a few months we will look back and see that this time is not that different from the previous occurrences.

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