A diary of the thought process behind my investment decisions
My Expiration Observation
I have found that the more bullish people are heading into expiration, the less likely we get a turn before expiration and the more likely the turn happens immediately after. The reason I think it works is that if the atmosphere is bullish people are more likely to roll bullish bets and less likely to roll bearish bets. That would have the effect of propping up the market until the rolls are completed.