More Red Flags

  • The Bulls in the Investors Intelligence survey this morning came in at 51.5%, pretty close to their January levels.
  • At midday the CBOE equity only put/call is at levels not seen in over five years. 
 The market has been registering extreme readings for a few weeks now and the tendency is to ignore them at this point because they have not worked. I believe that is a mistake. This time is not different.

9 comments:

Anonymous said...

Anyone following mE..

From now on I"m only posting my trades as I have always been doing at

twitter.com/skang357

Sold TRMA @ 3.11

OL DAWG

Onlooker said...

What's the bear number?

These sentiment numbers do make me wary, no doubt. But I still don't think we'll dip very much before we go higher still. Too much momentum in the market to correct much here.

No it's not entirely different this time, but as your previous post said it is a bit different right now, for some reason.

Kind of like the latter part of '06 when it just kept going up relentlessly. But this time the gains are even greater.

Tsachy Mishal said...

19%. Thats consistent with other major tops but it did get lower in January.

Tsachy Mishal said...

OL Dawg,

Let me know when you sell JTX.

Onlooker said...

Thanks. We should get another little dip to test 1200, and at most 1190ish. But we'll get more extreme sentiment before a signficant correction. Just my read on it right now.

And it's NOT based on emotion. Right now I have to hold my hand back from going short as it feels ridiculous.

Onlooker said...

JTX still looks like a falling knife to me. Maybe a short term little bounce but the daily chart is scary IMO. But I'm not into trading those things anyway.

GL!

Tsachy Mishal said...

Onlooker,

We are already hitting decade highs on put/calls. Where are you looking for more extreme readings?

On JTX I have a small position in my retirement account. Following OL DAWG. He has a hot hand with these things. Its entertainment.

Onlooker said...

Is that place going bankrupt? Not much further to fall, I suppose, but still could take a large percentage cut from here. No thanks.

Onlooker said...

I realize that the sentiment numbers are already extreme. But as you know they can get worse from here. That's all.

Crazy stuff, for sure.