A diary of the thought process behind my investment decisions
So everybody is (bears, that is) salivating over the prospects of a VIX sell signal right now, figuring that it's a sure thing and we're going to get a rip roaring pull back in the market. But what if it turns into a buy signal instead, by closing LOWER than the day that closed back inside the BBs? I fear that they will ignore this and cling to their bias, adding to shorts.I still think the market is too strong here to drop very much, despite the warning signals and "overbought" conditions. I think we've got another week or so before we make a short term top. Then maybe a few percent pullback before higher still.I don't know why, but that's what my work tells me. I'm gritting my teeth and holding off from going short.The dollar looked like it might make a (very) short term bottom going into today, but now it's looking like that may be delayed a week, which would coincide with the next trading cycle low according to Tim Wood's work (which I follow). And so gold will have another leg up before a significant correction, and stocks will grind higher.I'm long miners and a modest stock index position.Of course I might be wrong. But I remain flexible and not stubbornly biased, one way or the other (I've been there and won't go back). :-]
What bears? They are non existent.
Ha! You're right in the larger picture, but I'm referring to the crowd on the blogosphere that stubbornly adds to their deeply underwater shorts here, or is just hanging on, hoping to some day get even again. They're out there, believe me.I don't know about big money though (i.e. hedge funds), but I suspect you're right about that.
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