Complacency Vs. Seasonality

Not much has changed over the past two days as the dilemma remains the same. There is a disturbing level of complacency, which generally leads to poor results in the stock market. Whether looking at put/call ratios, Rydex positions, fund manager surveys or just looking around me there is little worry about risk.

While complacency remains a problem, seasonality is strongly in the bulls favor. April is the strongest month of the year and the beginning of the month is the strongest part of the month. April is the heart of tax refund season and the deadline for IRA contributions. I have seen many markets stay frothy until positive seasonality has passed, such as the decline in January. The market was frothy for a few weeks before the decline but until we passed the seasonally strong period the market stayed up.

The combination of positive and negative factors lead to a difficult investing environment. I don't think we will see an outsized move in either direction due to the mixed conditions.

1 comment:

Applesaucer said...

I hear ya.

In March I bought and sold FXP for some pocket change. Notwithstanding your ambivalence, I think today might provide a good settup for buying it back.

Applesaucer

p.s., I'm still slightly underwater on some SDS I bought and held (even as I sold my FXP).