Competing Forces

I am looking towards next week as expiration is notoriously difficult to game. The bull case is that tax refund season continues for another few weeks which causes positive seasonality until early May. The bear case is that sentiment extremes tend to lead to reversals after expiration. Additionally, the government will likely start selling shares of Citigroup once they report earnings next week and I expect stock issuance to pick up.

2 comments:

Onlooker said...

Looks like we testesd 1200. We go higher now to new highs to set some more and greater chart divergences. Then the bigger correction.

Just my opinion, of course.

I added a bit on the dip; UWM & QLD. Added UWM too soon but QLD just off the lows at 70/ Just for a trade with a stop at the lows.

Onlooker said...

Didn't sell those positions, though the further dip caught me a bit by surprise. Still think we get at least another bounce from here and I'll assess whether I want to hold onto them.