I remain of the belief that the market will put in a top by early May. However, I used Friday's and yesterday's dip to take down my net short exposure. The reason being that we are still in the seasonally strong part of the year and I don't want to be net short for the turn of the month.
Originally, I thought that the government would start selling shares of Citigroup this week and that we would see a heavy issuance calendar. I believed that the combination of extreme sentiment and heavy issuance would trump the positive seasonality. However, the government has not started selling shares of Citigroup and the issuance calendar has been light. I will wait until early May before looking at moving to a net short position again.
Apologies for the lack of posts but I am on the road.