Are We There Yet

My view continues to be that we are close to a major top. The put/call numbers were once again off the charts yesterday. I have had to adjust the axes of many of my charts in the past week as many of the readings were literally off the charts. We are in the quiet period before earnings so I was not expecting to see much share issuance this week. However, we did see a decent amount of secondaries announced yesterday. The largest being CF Industries and Dollar General. I think that there is a decent chance we see a down day today.

3 comments:

Onlooker said...

I agree about a down day today. I picked up a few real cheap Apr puts yesterday and some May as well.

Still think we have another push up before a bigger, significant correction. And then another run to a new high and maybe even a "final" top.

Tsachy Mishal said...

I could see a downturn either now or after expiration and one more rally at the beginning of May but I don't think there is much upside. I see 20 points of upside and over 100 points of downside on the S&P 500.

Onlooker said...

Just dumped my Apr IWM puts. That's all the dip for now, it would seem. Maybe we'll weaken again today, but it was a play on weakness at the open (bought just before close yesterday) and I wasn't able to sell them for a profit. Held them until we broke the last intraday swing low and let them go.

Still holding May and may add some more today.