The Reason

The reason I pulled the plug on my short position was:
  1. I realized that when the retail crowd gets involved all the extremes are generally reached. The 10 day moving averages of the put/call ratios are not yet showing extreme bullish sentiment.
  2. With Citigroup having such a strong day that will probably mean that more retail money will come in overnight.
  3. The loss was still small.
 Have a good night.


Anonymous said...

Pwawawa you decided to cover your short because of what you heard from some guy at a barber shop.

I tell you man, people will buy dung in a package if the wrapping looked nice and a lot of people bought it to or you think they did.

Market Owl said...

These are unprecedented markets. These kind of winning streaks are pretty rare. There are strange things happening in the market, unpredictable action.

Tsachy Mishal said...


What say yee on JTX?

dukebravo said...

Anon - it's called intuition and if you pick up a tip from the "man on the street" it's best to heed the herd, left you get trampled.

dukebravo said...

left = lest

Anonymous said...

CO I thought you said you sold JTX @ 2.66.

I have no opinion on this right now because they have all kinds of data announced from their earnings release. Forward statements and juicy tidbits.

Which I know I can make sense from it, but I didn't bother reading it because I'm lazy.

Maybe I'll look at it tomorrow.

We already missed a great intraday buy on it this morning at 2.10 to 2.15.

I don't like the chart right now anyway.

Anonymous said...

Cut me some slack DukeEnergy

We're talking about the same guy(s) who most likely were saying buy buy buy in 2008 and sell sell sell in March 2009.

Come on.

Anonymous said...


Strange things are happening. yeah it's called your getting your butt kicked right now.

Dont' worry we will prevail in the end.

Tsachy Mishal said...

I sold JTX but I wanted to know if it was worth buying back. They didnt miss estimates by too much and the short interest is so high.

Tsachy Mishal said...

I am not interested in trying to be a hero and prevail. I do this for a living.

Anonymous said...

I have a question how much capital is required to solely make a living from the market? high six figures? I wanna know what it takes. I figure you need to pull in at least 100K a year net before tax to do this and for a decent trader I think that takes around half a mil (returning 20% a year). what does it take from your pov?

Anonymous said...

here's my take on thing I remember about their earnings statement is that they said they will either breakeven or return a small profit fy 2010. I think a trader will make a profit as long as he buys under 2.50. notice that my opinion gives a lot of latitude not only in terms of price you buy but how much constitutes a profit. anyways

Tsachy Mishal said...

I think you need to set aside at least a year of living expenses and have enough capital to be able to live off of a 10% return. That doesn't mean you shouldn't aim higher.

Before you quit your day job, make sure you are good at trading. Use your free time to do research and test out your ideas. Once you are profitable trading while working you can start thinking about quitting.

Chaos! said...

I think the numbers line up well for the short side. Sentiment swung very quickly to bullishness. Even the 10 day CBOE Put/Call is quickly approaching Jan levels. The 10 day A/D makes it clear upside will be laboring at best. This battle's worth fighting. Even if you believe the market, it's now up about 10% from last months low without any significant pause. Upside will be tough for this tired beast in the short term.