Intelligent Investors Growing Bullish

The Investors Intelligence numbers came in showing the bulls growing to 49%, which is slightly below the 52% number we saw in January. The bears chimed in at 20.5%. I have found that when the bears are at 20% or below it generally signals danger ahead for the market.

If the survey were taken after the close yesterday I suspect the numbers would be even more extreme. I know that it seems like the market can't go down right now. Believe me when I say I feel it as well. It always feels this way at tops. Six weeks ago buying in the midst of the Greek crisis felt so wrong but I did it anyway and selling now feels just as wrong.

1 comment:

PJ said...

Now that the health care bill has been signed, maybe we can have an honest market for a bit.

Universal, extreme long positioning is combined with a near-universal belief that the market is overvalued. That's a tinderbox of a market.

If the belief that the government will not allow a market downturn gets shaken, then a lot of selling will emerge.