Based on the several hundred investment advisers I track, I'd have to say that bullish sentiment is approaching dangerously high levels. Consider the Hulbert Stock Newsletter Sentiment Index (HSNSI), which represents the average recommended stock market exposure among a subset of short term stock market timers tracked by the Hulbert Financial Digest.
It currently stands at 62.8%, up from 13.8% just one month ago. That's an awfully big jump for so short a period of time, especially considering that the Dow Jones Industrial Average rose a modest 4.4% over this period.
Also worrying is that, with but one exception, the HSNSI is now at its highest level since early 2007, more than three years ago.
That one exception, when the HSNSI was higher than it is now, came in early January, two months ago. Soon thereafter, of course, the market entered into its January-February correction, during which the Dow declined by nearly 8%.
An Extreme Sentiment Measure
Most sentiment measures I follow have not registered extreme readings. However, the Hulbert Stock Newsletter Sentiment Index is registering an extreme reading. I don't track this indicator but it is something to consider. From Marketwatch:
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3 comments:
I can believe it. On most of the bear blogs I look at, bloggers and most commenters have capitulated and gone long.
My wife has done the same, though she only handles a small account for fun.
PJ, You made it to Steve Kaplans news letter with your comment
nica - Who's Steve Kaplan and where do I find his newsletter?
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