The Air Is Getting Thin

The air is getting thin as the S&P 500 continues its 100+ point climb without taking a break. This morning, the S&P 500 is breaking out past the January highs. Even if the market has really broken out, I believe that it is an extremely high probability bet that the market will come back and test this breakout level.

The reason I believe the 1150 mark on the S&P 500 will be retested at minimum is twofold. Most of the time breakout levels are tested after the initial run, especially when the breakout happens after a parabolic run. The second reason is that the silly part of a run is usually erased in the ensuing correction and we are firmly in silly territory.

The only question is that of timing and I will look at how I am considering timing a short trade in another post shortly.

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