A diary of the thought process behind my investment decisions
This market it relentless. We made a new intraday high on the DJIA. Maybe the "mission" is complete for this run now. Surely we're close to a bullish extreme here (he says hopefully). I know, hope is not a good strategy.
What do you think of SPG as a short now. Up near 85, but running. Has anything significant changed in the valuation over the past couple months?Praguer
The valuation is insane. Their business is in secular decline. Shopping will be done over the internet more and more. However, the way this crazy market is it might actually reward them for overpaying for GGP. If their is a pop on the acquisition announcement, that would be a decent short entry.
Interesting to note that JNK is basically flat over the last week. Struggling just at the highs of Jan. If we see some more weakness in that area, that may be a clue for the market, just as in Jan.What do you think of that thesis?
I'm short full boat. Might have to wait til after expiration, but I see the risk here as one of not being in.Rarely has so much aligned favorably for short plays.
ISEE numbers are still high, but the CPC & CPCE numbers are strangely high too. I know they tend to spike to start out the day but they went WAY up there and are still elevated.Weird, and unsettling. Unless it's just smart money acting there.
I have been posting and agreeing with most here, that we should be getting a pullback. But I can also see the bulls point of view.They broke thru 1150 resistance. I really can't see why they won't hit 1200 or 11,000 on the dow. I think if we do get a 1 or 2 day dip it will be bought heavily. Back to the new targets.I guess I'm turning into a bearish bull?
long BGZ 14.11
SPG - If I take the 2008 net income before interest and taxes minus minority interest and divide by the current market value, I get a cap rate of 6%. I believe that individual malls sell around 7%, though securitization "adds" value. Maybe not insane, but bloated.
Shopping centers sell at more like an 8 or 9 cap.
Post a Comment