No Easy Trade

Sentiment has been stubbornly bearish for the greater part of this rally. However, Friday was the type of day that turns bears into bulls. The bears received the news they were hoping for but the market rallied anyway. While sentiment is nowhere near a bullish extreme Friday's action likely accelerated the shift into the bull camp.

The market is now overbought but not yet maximum overbought. It will possibly be maximum overbought at the end of the day tomorrow. This indicator will likely become a headwind for the market come Wednesday.

All in all there does not seem to be an easy trade at this point. If the sentiment shift continues and the market rallies over the next two days there might be a short trade midweek.


Random Thoughts said...

Mammary Monday

PJ said...

Welcome back Tsachy. Hope your son recovers soon.

No easy trade to be sure ... though I think on a larger time scale, and especially outside the US, some shorts are setting up nicely.

Looks like the recent rotation to riskier sectors is continuing. Doubt it will continue much longer.