A diary of the thought process behind my investment decisions
Below Friday's close, because we worked off the oversoldness on Monday and Tuesday, and have plenty of bear fuel to spend. Also investor reluctance to get long ahead of NFP and overnight Europe session.
Above.Very short term money is short at this point and more likely to cover before the number than the longs. If you are long and haven't been spooked out yet, you probably aren't hitting the bid in the 11th hour.My caveat is that we have been bumping along the bottom for a while and should have seen a start to this move by now. Ergo there may be more going on behind the scenes than meets the eye. If we flush lower into the close I would take that as a sign that some real money is lightening up and raising cash. This would be very bearish for the next week or so. We are selling off again now as I type, but I will stick with the above guess.JD
below friday's close today and the selloff will continue tomorrow as well because people will be afraid to hold positions over the weekend due to uncertainty.
Below. ETF rebalancing will add selling pressure in the last hour.But I do respect JD's point. Could go the other way.
belowCuz all i wanna do is buy, and im always wrong!
Did i tell you i am really bearish here. I know i told owl.
Long more CPF @ 1.11OL DAWG
I think it would be better for the market if we closed well below Friday's lows. That would lead to a cleaner washout. If we do manage a bounce today and then have some better news out of Europe tomorrow everybody would point to this as a successful retest. The odds of a bounce into the close seem very low because these type of days usually close on the lows. But the financials are starting to firm and the hiding places are starting to get hit. The under is the higher probability bet but I cant shake the feeling that we will get the over. Were I given the proper odds (which are probably 2-1) I would take the over
Above. John Chambers' comments were too bullish. There's enough doubt to prop up the market.
i agree with tsachy, i think the way the market closes will be a good reflection of the psychology of the traders...if it closes significantly below last friday , then this a sign of capitulation, which means a bottom is closer , if the prices hold here or rally, then the bulls haven't given up yet, means more up and down until a bottom comes
Post a Comment