That Didn't Take Long

  • The call buyers are back at the ISE after taking the morning off. They learned their lesson rather quickly.
  • The pharmaceutical sector has broken out today. I sold down my exposure over the past week looking to buy it back cheaper on a correction.
  • A mistake that I keep repeating is trading out of longer term positions.
  • The question is not if Intel and JPMorgan will beat earnings. The question is what will be the market's reaction once they beat estimates?
  • If anybody out there believes that either of these companies will not beat earnings handily please say so on the message board.


Anonymous said...

Meredith Whitney Advisory Group lowered EPS estimates on JP Morgan (NYSE: JPM) today, which follows yesterday's estimate cuts at Goldman Sachs (NYSE: GS) and Morgan Stanley (NYSE: MS).

Meredith Whitney lowered Q4 EPS estimates from $0.55 to $0.45 (the consensus is $0.64) and FY09 from $2.05 to $1.95 (consensus is $2.15). FY10 goes from $2.05 to $2.00. FY11 is set at $2.50 and FY12 at $3.75.

Anonymous said...

Can she be that wrong?

Anonymous said...

Tsachy, as you have noted, every dip is bought and buyers are now also conditioned to bid up the market into the close. At what point does it work no more?

Tsachy Mishal said...

I think we are close. This is not all that different from previous tops. The first few dips lower were always bought.

I am leaving room for one more push higher Friday if earnings excite people. At that point I am moving to a large short position.

PJ said...

Who can forecast bank earnings? They can make them whatever they want, almost. If they were honest, they'd be mediocre to poor. Selling MBS at inflated prices to the Fed has been the only profitable business line.

Intel should beat expectations.

Market reaction? Well, since 8 out of 9 days are up, I'm guessing up ... But I think we might have a down morning until the 30-yr auction completes.