The government reported figures are estimates and have a decent size margin of error. I believe last months report overstated the strength in jobs. There are three other methods of estimating job losses and all showed weaker numbers.
- Last month ADP showed a job loss of over 100,000. ADP is the largest payroll processor in the country and has reliable data.
- TrimTabs uses tax receipts to estimate job losses and they also estimated a much higher number.
- Lastly, flat jobs growth is correlated with a 4 week moving average of 400,000 new unemployment claims. The 4 week moving average of unemployment claims was well above 450,000 last month.