Pressing My Treasury Long

Even though I see interest rates higher in the longer term, I remain long treasuries for the following reasons:
  • Every time I have seen the consensus this bearish on treasuries there has been a rally.
  • I don't believe the economy could withstand much higher rates. If rates go much higher the rest of my portfolio should do very well as I am not positioned for a strong economy.
  • I am long treasuries via a short of the TBT. The TBT is a levered ETF that has lost  over 30% of its value in the past 18 months even though treasuries (TLT) have done nothing.
Today is the auction of the 30 year bond, which is always scary for treasury investors. However, this will be the last auction for the month of January. It will be a few weeks before treasury investors will be faced with any more scary events.

I will be out at meetings for the next few hours.

5 comments:

Anonymous said...

The date-

Markets should start their decline on Jan 26th.

Good luck.

Anonymous said...

Sold PCBC @ 1.38

OL DAWG

Tsachy Mishal said...

OL DAWG

Did you see what CRME did?

Anonymous said...

Great call on CRME Tsachy!

Tsachy Mishal said...

I cant take credit for it. I researched it at $4. It popped 20 cents so I decided not to buy. Woulda, coulda , shoulda.