A diary of the thought process behind my investment decisions
AAPL has already run up ahead of earnings. I think more likely scenario is that we gap down in the futures on a sell the news reaction, ala INTC last week.
The put/call situation has me believing that the market needs to get rid of some skepticism before there is good downside. There was heavy call buying ahead of Intel. Don't you think that makes this setup different?I am debating whether to stay long over night.
Tsachy, it's true the selloff so far has been driven by futures/options/etfs. Not much cash selling.On the other hand, don't you think after historic bullishness and a relentless 10-month rise, that it will take more than a few days of hedging to work off the overbought condition?Today's anemic bounce looks good for the bears, in my view.
I would like to see the bulls get their hopes up before the next leg down. The correction does not have to happen in a straight line.
Lets put it this way. It would be an easier setup to go short if we had a relief rally where the bulls became hopeful again. That doesn't mean we wont go down now but its not an easy setup.
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