Have We Seen A Short Term Low

I suspect that we might have seen a short term low that could carry us through the seasonally strong beginning of the month. I was hoping to build up more longs but I am sure everyone else was as well. Have a good night.

9 comments:

Anonymous said...

LONG ATHX @ 2.55

OL DAWG

Anonymous said...

You think the bulls will get off that easily?

Anonymous said...

I added shorts on the close (March SPY puts). Back up to about 50% short.

Everyone hoping to have built up more longs?? I don't think so. More like everyone praying for an Obama bounce up to 1115 so they can get out or re-establish shorts that they cut too early (in front on 1115 on the way down).

That's the way I'm reading the blogs out there anyway...

bounce to 1115
bounce to 1115
bounce to 1115

It's everywhere.

Even the perma-bears seem to be square.

JD

Tsachy Mishal said...

If the market did fall through the end of the week we would be maximum oversold going into the beginning of the month. Thats why I am more interested in longs than shorts.

I think we will go lower but why does it have to be straight down?

Anonymous said...

From the looks of who Obama invited to sit next to his wife... some blue collar people, he's gonna shaft the banks and present populist rhetoric looks like. i dunno maybe it doesn't really mean anything.

Anonymous said...

I agree tsachy. I wish I loaded up this afternoon. I think we could go up for a couple days.

Anonymous said...

You are correct Tsachy, it does not have to go straight down. But we have seen several bounces, just not to the levels I am hearing people want/expect to see. We hit 1078.50 SP futures yesterday and then 1103.50 after the SOTU last night. That is a pretty good bounce, 2.3% in about 10 hours. We also saw 1086.25 to 1103.50 Friday to Monday (1.5%) and 1081.00 to 1100.00 on Monday to Tuesday (1.7%). So this is our third attempt to get above 1100 in futures.

My gut feeling is that very few people are betting that we go down from here.

Good luck,

JD

Tsachy Mishal said...

Who has been buying all the puts lately? The crowd is significantly more bearish than it was a few weeks back. Im just looking for a little reprieve or sideways movement. I think we will eventually resume to the downside.

Anonymous said...

My answer, and it's just a guess, is that those buying puts now are buying insurance that they hope they won't need. They are not speculative positions that will need to be covered.

During the run up last year, I think a lot more of the put buying, percentage-wise, was of the speculative variety.

I am not fully short because I got burned by pressing last October and it may happen again. My gut though tells me we will see 10%+ on this correction without ever getting a chance to re-short at 1115-20.

JD