Couldn't Pull The Trigger

I believe we will get a very tradeable rally starting some time next week as opposed to the occasional bounces we had this week. However, the end of the decline could be the sharpest and scariest part. My plan was to force myself to do some buying at the end of the day if there was an ugly close, similar to the one we just had. But something stopped me that I can't put my finger on. Maybe it was that the decline felt too orderly or maybe it just feels too good to not have much risk on. That said,  it is hard to imagine that a decline on Monday would not lead to a Turnaround Tuesday. Have a great weekend.

5 comments:

Tsachy Mishal said...

I put a bid below the market to buy a starter position in SPY in the after hours session. I doubt I will get filled but it sometimes happens when the market is thin (like on a Friday night).

CP said...

I took a lot of risk off - covering and selling puts.
Hopefully I can short into some fund inflows on Monday!

PJ said...

CP - More likely to be fund outflows than inflows. Retail customers have been leaving equity funds for months. That's likely to accelerate with three straight down weeks.

In the end I covered some of my shorts because (a) Mondays have been strong for about six months, (b) the payroll report next Friday may surprise many on the upside, and focus on the consensus +50k payrolls may start Monday, (c) the general tenor of talk around the SOTU was very negative and the political mood might have affected the market this week, and (d) gold and the Euro didn't follow stocks down through the afternoon Friday, so the last 5 points wasn't confirmed for me.

But I wouldn't be surprised by a down Monday, turnaround Tuesday scenario.

nicasurfer said...

Man. I have a bad feeling about monday. Really wish i would have opened some more shorts. Didn't have time to do this on friday but investor sentinment is showing complancency. This bear is gonna eat some bulls.

All we need is another country to default on debt and it is dow 9900 with the quickness. We gap up at all on monday i am shorting it hard.

I have a scary feeling there are a lot of traders who cleared to early and are thinking like me also.

Tsachy Mishal said...

I was filled last night @107.21. Its a small position. 1/8 the size my short position was at the highs.