Asked and Answered

I apologize for the lack of posts but my meetings ran over. Today's action has not yet had the chance to sink in as I was away from the computer but here are my initial thoughts:
  • Yesterday's late day rally was likely the result of leaks about Obama's speech. Its always better when the market bottoms on no news or even bad news.
  • The call buying today was disturbing. 
  • I would not be surprised if today's decline has something to do with Greece, with Greek bonds widening out to record levels.
  • I was hoping to buy Goldman in the 140 area. Does today's rally mean I need to change my plans?
  • My longs were actually up nicely today (Amgen and Berkshire). It was pure luck that I had such a good day because I was clearly wrong about the direction of the market. I have been on the other side of luck plenty of times so I will take it when I can get it.
  • The million dollar question is "Will I be buying weakness tomorrow as planned"?
  • Its likely that I will buy weakness but I would want to see some fear and put buying. If call buying stays at today's level I might just take a pass.
  • Have a good night.

6 comments:

Anonymous said...

Sentiment is clearly bullish. Why do you want to stick your neck out here?

Tsachy Mishal said...

Im going to respond to what I see. If we see bullishness tomorrow then I will not buy.

Tsachy Mishal said...

PJ,

Nice call last night.

PJ said...

Hi Tsachy, think you mean JD with the nice call. I've been short throughout, just trading my shorts between banks and China/Russell 2000 based on relative valuations. When we had the scare "Obama war on the banks" I shifted out of bank shorts which paid off nicely for me.

I wouldn't be surprised to see a small bounce Friday or Monday but I don't think we'll spend much if any time above 1090 now. We'll see 1030 before 1100.

The fundamentals are just too lousy in too many countries right now, and investors globally have taken on too much risk.

PJ said...

PS - The GDP report tomorrow morning could be your good news that inspires a sell-off.

Anonymous said...

I disagree with PJ. We are ripe for a move higher. Everyday we go without, the higher and more volatile it will be. I think we will go to 1115 then lower. Maybe to 1036.