Alcoa Doesn't Matter

Despite my bearish positioning, I will be the first to admit that Alcoa does not matter. Rarely do their results have any predictive value for the rest of earnings season. However, it could serve as an excuse for the market to correct if the market is already inclined to do so.

Regular readers know my belief that the news matters less than most believe. By most accounts the employment report on Friday was bad. However, the market was not ready for a correction. Had the market gone down the media would have said that the employment report was the reason. If the market corrects today, Alcoa will be the reason. The truth is that the market will go down today if it is ready to correct and that has little to do with Alcoa.

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