In hindsight, it was obvious that the market would start the year off strongly. We heard many stories of how hedge funds took down risk towards the end of the year in order to lock in their performance fees. Since sentiment was so bullish it was likely that when the new year started they would be back taking up risk. That was the reason I waited until the second day of the year to move to a net short position. But I am left asking myself why I didn't go long for a trade?
Looking forward a few weeks from now, what will be the trade that is obvious in hindsight? I think the trade will be that we finally get a significant correction. Extreme sentiment like the type we have seen over the past few weeks almost always leads to a correction.