Apologies for the late post but I have been working on rebalancing my portfolio. I replaced a portion of my SPY short with a short of Simon Property Group. Simon Property Group is the largest mall owner in the country. I believe they have two secular themes working against them. The move to internet shopping and a consumer that will be saving more. Now that the shares are fully valued I am comfortable shorting them. The best thing they have going for them is price momentum.

I was also planning on shorting the XRT and XHB, which are the retail and homebuilder ETFs but I can't get a borrow on those shares. I have been wanting to short retail but don't like shorting the sector until after Christmas.


Anonymous said...

Why would you want to short homebuilders when they just capped the limit on money going into FNM and FRE.

I was thinking about going long a stock like OHB.

Anonymous said...

That being said I agree with your SPG short.

I have no idea what the internals of that REIT look like but compared to others like MPG, the thing is way overvalued just from face value.

I thought all REITS were going to hell on valuation.

But I'm not bearish on corporate real estate, reits, or anything involving land and development.

Anonymous said...

I meant upward capped.

Tsachy Mishal said...

Fannie and Freddie spreads to treasuries are about as tight as could be. The move by the Treasury will be offset by the fact the Fed will stop repurchasing FNM and FRE debt in March. Interest rates have been on the rise as of late.

These stocks are fully valued unless we see another housing bubble. Its very rare for a bubble to reinflate. The tech bubble was followed by a housing bubble, not another tech bubble.