Pedal To The Metal

I am considering making a large short bet on the market, once we get clarity on exactly when the Citigroup offering will be. I have done well this year and this is the time to take risk. I like to start off the new year slowly take more risk as I have profits. If my play doesn't work out by the end of the week I would exit.

5 comments:

Anonymous said...

Tsachy,
Market is looking like it's going to break out:
*It's at its 4th test of the top range and historically the 3rd or 4th time is when penetration occurs.
*Dow Transports are confirming bull trend.
*Seasonality is strong this time of year.
*Volume is going to dry up, making it harder for bears take this market down...think how market reacted to the Dubai crisis on that short Friday.
*Fed is most likely to stay the course, probably undercutting the dollar again. And that's a positive for stocks.

I'm inclined to your point of view and prefer to go short but when I see these things, it makes me very hesitant. I would love to hear your thoughts on these items.
Thanks.

Anonymous said...

I'm not getting short here that's for sure.

Tsachy Mishal said...

I agree with your points but think $20 billion in supply will trump all. Absent Citigroup you would likely be right.

The market pulled back after the BAC secondary even though we had that employment report that blew out the lights.

Absent BAC last week I think this market would be approaching 1200 but the fact is we are having these huge secondaries.

Chaos! said...

Tough time of year to be an aggressive short. We're past tax selling season and a lot of money come into the market through bonus season. Also-market internals appear to be improving after degrading for a few months. Even the financials caught a bid today.
I love the short side, but I'm wary given the time of year and the fact that they didn't bust this market last month. There certainly was a plethora of bad news then.

Market Owl said...

I think the market is ripe for a quick selloff after the FOMC meeting. Before then, the trading should be muted.