New Extreme For II Survey

The II survey is showing over 52% bulls with bears hovering at their lows. Anecdotally, it doesn't seem that anybody out there is bearish as even the bears have latched on to the seasonality trade. The market needs a good shakeout.

7 comments:

Anonymous said...

What's the story Tsachy, are you going to press your shorts? You seem more bearish than usual but don't appear to be putting on more than small downside exposure.

I am hesitant, this market may not be making convincing new highs but it sure is heck isn't selling off either. Look at the dollar rally, over six big figures in the EUR and we are leaning right on new S&P highs...

Good Luck,

JD

Tsachy Mishal said...

I moved toved to a medium sized short posture 2 days ago at SPY 111.82. I am still debating whether to move in stronger. If we get strength on the Fed announcement I will likely do so.

Anonymous said...

Rydex are at an extreme bear reading.

Tsachy Mishal said...

I was going to get more aggressive yesterday, but when I saw the Citi deal delayed yet another day I held off.

Tsachy Mishal said...

I think you meant Rydex traders are at an extreme bull reading, which is bearish.

Anonymous said...

Waiting for this shakeout might take longer than Godot.

Tsachy Mishal said...

With every day that passes people are growing more comfortable with the market. In reality we are just one day closer to the shakeout.

The longer it doesnt happen, the more people get comfortable, the worse the shakeout will be.