Bonds Getting Hit

The ten year bond is getting hit up again today. The FHA changes set to go in effect in two weeks and higher rates are a headwind for the housing markets. But its the time of the year when stocks can't go down, so who cares?

8 comments:

Anonymous said...

It's unbelievable. Dollar index (DXY) could be up 11 cents and it would knock the market down 100 points with worries over the dollar carry trade. Today it's up 68 cents and it's just a blip for the market.

Chaos! said...

Lots of reasons to sell the market again today. Russell 2000 is up.
I'm thinking that's the market's message right now.
I love the short side, but too risky for me here. If the financial's rally, it could trigger a spike up.

Tsachy Mishal said...

I believe that you under appreciate the significance of a Citi and WFC offering. $30 billion is not pocket change.

Anonymous said...

Tsachy, what do you think? Sell off last hour or back to even?

Tsachy Mishal said...

Looks like Citi is not happening tonight. If Citi were tonight I would expect a strong selloff into the close as investors make room for Citi in their portfolios. I have no strong opinion on the close barring a citi secondary.

Anonymous said...

CNBC reporting Citi secondary tonight or tomorrow.

Anonymous said...

Can you please explain why investors would make room for Citi in their portfolios? Is it mandated that they must own this stock?

Tsachy Mishal said...

Citi is creating new stock. Someone is buying that new stock. That someone either has to take cash off the sidelines or sell some stock.

Either way it is not a positive. Either there is less money on the sidelines or stock gets sold.

The only people that will be forced to buy and sell other stocks are indexers. If 12% of the market is indexed (rough calculation), there should be some $2.4 billion of forced buying and selling.