It is the time of the year when everyone puts out their predictions for 2010. I have been reading many of these predictions for the past few weeks. The most common prediction I have seen is that the first half of 2010 will be great while the second half will be a disappointment. I had also thought that was a likely outcome, but am now questioning it.
It is very rare for everyone to be correct in markets. That would either mean that we would first need a stiff shakeout before a first half of 2010 rally or that the first half will be lackluster. A strong pickup in cash M&A would go a long way towards helping the crowd, but absent that I am becoming more pessimistic on the first half of 2010.